A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
