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PHEVs emit nearly 5x greater global warming pollution than official data show, as per a new report.

Widening Gap Between Official and Real-World Emissions

Data reveals that PHEVs emit just one-fifth less CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel cars, based on analysis carried out by a non-profit group. This differs significantly with lab estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle energy use meters of eight hundred thousand cars registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while lab-reported figures are falling,” stated a lead researcher participating in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a serious issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as petrol cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed most of the difference to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in battery power compared to total distance. The team found that only 27% of travel was completed in EV mode, whereas lab estimates suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution levels were well above lab estimates. This occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate alone, resulting to combustion motors burning gasoline for almost one-third of the travel completed in electric mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

Based on estimates, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker groups to avoid more than €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with EU average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would spend approximately €500 extra per year in operating expenses than is assumed under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are obviously far from the truth,” stated a automotive expert. “Consumers are being misled into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and cutting money. In reality, PHEVs are little better than standard petrol and diesel cars in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and operating costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Pressure

Plug-in hybrid cars have recently been brought back into political debates as automakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed prohibition on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from EU countries with large automotive industries.

Some high-level officials have proposed PHEVs as a possible “compromise” solution to include in the regulation.

One external energy policy expert, who was not involved with the research, called the report a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the car industry argued there was too little information to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the difference between official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for gasoline or diesel cars,” the expert said. “Any policy changes regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme care and considering that data.”